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Forecasting without Historical Data
We can forecast even when no historical data exists, if we use our experience and judgment. In Part 1 of our probabilistic forecasting series we looked at how uncertainty is presented; in Part 2 we looked at how uncertainty is calculated. Both of those parts presumed historical data was available. Although estimating without historical data…
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Probabilistic Forecasting
In Part 1 of this series we discussed how probabilistic forecasting retains each estimate’s uncertainty throughout the forecast. We looked at how weather forecaster’s present uncertainty in their predictions and how people seem comfortable that the future cannot be predicted perfectly and life still continues. We need this realization in IT forecasts! In Part 2…
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Forecasting Defined
This is the first article in a series that will introduce alternative ways to forecast date, cost and staff needs for software projects. It is not a religious journey; we plan to discuss estimation and forecasting like adults and understand how and when different techniques are appropriate given context. Stakeholders often ask engineers to estimate…
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Exponential Case Study: 3 Benefits from Agility
Senex Rex case studies help clients better understand the benefits and challenges of agility. Here is a perspective from Pablo Martin Rodriguez-Bertorello, Chief Innovation Officer of Exponential. Senex Rex trained Exponential’s executives, managers, engineers and product management staff to deeply understand agile theory and practice, so Exponential could stand alone with no further external training…
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Troy Magennis: 2013 Brickell Key Award Winner for KanbanSim
We feel a little embarrassed that we didn’t announce Troy Magennis was one of two Brickell Key award winners, when it happened in 2013. This award is granted to people who have shown outstanding achievement, leadership and contribution to the Kanban Community.
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Metrics, Trust and Communication
Good managers try to measure important aspects of their business with leading metrics (aka “key performance indicators”) that precede desired outcomes. Managers seeking agility often try to measure behavioral compliance to agile practices, but can inadvertently create a lying culture. When people don’t understand the metrics or can’t provide feedback, they perceive metrics as bureaucratic…
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The Goal Revisited
The Goal by Eliyahu Goldratt is a business novel that recounts how a factory manager shakes off complacency and isolation to save his factory and its employees. Many MBAs, system scientists and agilists have read it. I read The Goal 7 years ago. I was so excited I sent our CEO an email. “Have you read it? It has…
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Forecast Horizon: Does Your Team Communicate?
Good communication between product manager and team, between value appraisal and product development, leads to success. It helps you build the right thing at the right time. When the Product Owner and Development Team communicate well, the Product Owner can forecast feature delivery dates with a statistical likelihood. It promotes great architectures. The Development Team…
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Failure Rates
“If you want to succeed, double your failure rate.”—Thomas J. Watson, IBM
